Friday, July 15 Best Bets & Update
Frustrating, frustrating, frustrating.
There’s really nothing else that describes yesterday’s Best Bet, as I took one of the better teams in baseball at home with very good pitcher against one of the worst teams in baseball on the road with 10 guys missing, including multiple starters.
Of course, somehow or another, the Royals beat the Blue Jays 3-1. Are you kidding me?
As I have said, baseball is a grind and there will be ups and downs – but that was a kick in the teeth loss.
Oh well, we’re in it for the long haul and we’re back at it today.
This will be the final post until after next week’s All-Star break. Hopefully, we can end this ceremonial first half on a winning note and be ready for the second half next weekend.
Today’s Best Bets
Blue Jays (-1.5, -155) vs. Royals – Yes, I know, this failed yesterday. But, I’m a glutton for punishment and am going right back to the Blue Jays over the short-handed Royals.
As a reminder, Toronto has a record of 47-43 and is fighting for a playoff spot. Kansas City is 36-53 and is nowhere near the playoffs.
In addition, the Blue Jays will have Alek Manoah pitching tonight and he’s been stellar this year with a 9-4 record and an ERA of 2.34.
Yes, the Royals are pitching Zack Grienke, but he’s just 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA.
I don’t see lightning striking twice in two days. I’m taking the Blue Jays -1.5.
Thursday, July 14 Best Bet & Update
Sometimes baseball just doesn’t make sense.
Zach Wheeler has been absolutely amazing this year for the Phillies, but there he was yesterday getting banged around by the Blue Jays, who were playing their first game after their manager was fired.
Then, you have the Yankees struggling to eke out a 7-6 victory over the Reds after falling behind 4-0. It’s not so much of a surprise that the Yankees rallied to win. It’s that they were behind to the lowly Reds at all – especially after losing their three previous games.
Of course, games, teams and players not going according to script are what make sports great. It also makes them much more difficult to handicap.
If you couldn’t figure it out, we had the Phillies to win the first five yesterday and the Yankees to win on the -1.5 RL. Both plays lost, but the good thing about baseball is there are 13 more games today to examine and maybe make a play on.
Today’s Best Bets
While there are 13 games that you all can play from, I’m going to not overthink this and focus on one.
Blue Jays (-1.5 RL) vs. Royals – There are quite a few things going in Toronto’s favor today in this game, but probably none more important than the Royals are missing 10 guys off their roster due to being unvaccinated. If you’re not vaccinated, you’re not allowed into Canada and the Blue Jays have been getting the benefit of that all season.
Toronto just swept a two-game series from the Phillies, who were missing several starters because of their vaccination status. Now, the Jays get Kansas City, who will be missing a host of players. When both teams are full strength, Toronto is five games over .500 and the Royals are 18 games under.
Combine that with the facts that Kevin Gausman will be on the mound for the Blue Jays and that they have a little momentum and new life with their new manager, and it’s hard to imagine that the Royals aren’t in trouble tonight.
Gausman is 6-6 with a paltry 2.86 ERA this season. He’s averaging over 10 strikeouts and less than two walks per nine innings. He’s only given up two runs in his last 15 innings and appears to be on top of his game.
As I said, I’m not going to overthink this. I’m taking Toronto -1.5.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Wednesday, July 13 Best Bets & Update
It was nice to get a win under our belt yesterday after a tough spate of games. Baseball is a day-in, day-out grind and there are going to be ups and downs. It’s something you learn to deal with – but suffering through a losing streak is always difficult.
We have a full schedule of 16 games with everyone playing and a doubleheader between the Mariners and Nationals.
We did take advantage of yesterday’s doubleheader as the White Sox, behind a strong effort by Dylan Cease, beat the Guardians 7-0 in game two after falling 4-1 in the afternoon opener.
Let’s get right to today’s games
Today’s Best Bets
Yankees (-1.5 RL, -165) vs. Reds – Cincinnati actually beat the Yankees 4-3 yesterday in a game in Yankee Stadium and in a game that Gerrit Cole started for New York. Cole did his part, pitching seven shutout innings, but the Reds scored four runs in the top of the ninth to get the win.
Do we really think the Yankees are going to lose their fourth straight game? Hard to imagine.
Luis Severino will pitch for the Yankees against lefthander Mike Minor. New York is 19-8 against lefties this season. Clearly, the Yankees have also been the best team in baseball so far this season. They have won 28 more games than the Reds and the season is just barely half over.
I’m taking the Yankees on the RL here.
Phillies (first five -0.5, +115) at Blue Jays – Philadelphia traveled to Toronto short-handed because of Canada’s covid restrictions and a handful of unvaccinated Phillies players. They lost 4-3 last night, but have Zach Wheeler on the mound to close out the short series.
Wheeler has been outstanding this season with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He also pitched seven scoreless innings in his last time out against St. Louis.
The Blue Jays counter with Ross Stripling, who has been solid this year, but not as good as Wheeler.
Getting Wheeler at plus money is something that doesn’t happen often. I’m taking the Phillies to win the first five innings.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Monday, July 11 Best Bets & Update
We start a new week with a 10-game MLB slate today. Sunday was a big day for the underdogs as they went 8-7. Will that continue this week?
Also, later in the week we will have the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews in Scotland. That will provide multiple opportunities for bettors as well. Also, MLS has a strong schedule this week and that can offer good plays as well.
We closed out last week with a 1-2 record on Friday. The win came in MLS action as Philadelphia throttled D.C. United 7-0. Upsets by the Tigers over the White Sox and Rockies over the Diamondbacks killed our two baseball bets.
I look forward to getting back on the winning track as we start a new week.
Today’s Best Bets
White Sox (-115 ML) at Guardians – Cleveland has fallen on rough times as its dropped eight of its last 10 and 14 of its last 20. The White Sox have done a little better, going 6-5 in their last 10 and 10-10 in their last 20.
The pitching matchup also favors Chicago today as Lance Lynn goes against Cal Quantrill. Lynn has only pitched 27 innings so far this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 5.33 ERA. His advanced analytics all point to him pitching better than his numbers and that positive regression is coming.
Quantrill, in contrast, has better numbers with a 3.86 ERA, but his advanced analytics point to negative regression.
I like the price of -115 in getting the hotter team with a pitcher due for better results.
I’m taking the White Sox on the ML.
Phillies (-125 ML) at Cardinals – The Phillies have won the first two of three games of this series with the Cardinals coming from behind to win 4-3 yesterday.
Both teams are in a fight for the final wild card position and right now it’s Philadelphia with a one game lead.
Aaron Nola, who has been very good this season, will be on the mound for the Phils and face Miles Mikolas for St. Louis.
Both pitchers have very strong numbers this season with Nola pitching a little better than his record and numbers show and Mikolas having a little better numbers than he’s actually pitched.
Philadelphia is 7-3 in its last 10 games while St. Louis is 3-7. The Phillies have won 19-11 in their last 30 while the Cards are just 14-16.
Here’s another time I’m going with the hotter team and the pitcher that should have positive regression coming his way.
I’m taking the Phillies on the ML.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Friday, July 8 Best Bets & Update
It was a mixed bag as far as our results from yesterday were concerned. I was better at handicapping than the actual bets.
Nevertheless, we did win two of our five and one of them was at +125 so it wasn’t the worst day ever.
Today, like all Fridays during the summer, has a full slate of 15 baseball games to choose from as well as three MLS contests that we may took a look at.
Yesterday’s recap
As noted above, we went 2-3 on the day yesterday. Our first win was the Orioles winning the first five innings against the Angels. Baltimore jumped to a 4-0 lead after five innings and rolled to a 4-1 win.
We also had the Dodgers (-1.5) against the Cubs and L.A. continued its good season with a 5-3 victory.
We also had the White Sox, who lost 2-1 to the Tigers, and the Braves, who lost 3-2 to the Cardinals. In both cases, we counted on the starting pitching, and both actually pitched extremely well. We just didn’t count on the White Sox or Braves being held down.
In our last play, we had the Over (9.5) in the D-backs-Rockies game. Our theory was that both starting pitchers were bad – and they were. The score was 4-3 after five innings. The total for five innings was 5 and that’s the play we should’ve made as the final score was 4-3.
Oh well. Live and learn. You always need to keep collecting data and learning so that your future plays have a better chance of winning.
Today’s Best Bets
We’re going to focus on two baseball games and also venture into the MLS with a play.
White Sox (-1.5 RL, +110) vs. Tigers – We’re going back to the White Sox well again and this is mostly a fade of Detroit pitcher Tarik Skubal. In his last five starts, he hasn’t gotten out of the fifth inning, and he’s given up 5, 3, 6, 5 and 4 runs during those outings.
Skubal will face Chicago righty Lucas Giolito, who gave up just one run on three hits in six innings in his last time out.
The White Sox only scored one run last night and we think they’ll bounce back tonight. It’s plus money on the RL so we’re taking the White Sox.
Diamondbacks (-1.5 RL, +120) vs. Rockies – It will be Zac Gallen for Arizona against Chad Kuhl for Colorado in this matchup. The Rockies edged the D-backs 4-3 yesterday and used four relief pitchers in the process.
Gallen is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA and Arizona is 9-6 in his 15 starts this season. Conversely, the Rockies are just 3-8 in Kuhl’s last 11 starts.
I like Arizona to bounce back and get the win on the RL.
Philadelphia Union (-140) vs. D.C. United – The Union are in second place in the Eastern Conference of the MLS and are just two points behind the New York Red Bulls, who sit atop the East. D.C. United, on the other hand, are in 13th place (out of 14) in the East.
Philadelphia is coming off two road games where they fell 1-0 to Chicago and had a scoreless draw in Columbus. The Union are the better team, they’re at home and they want to bounce back after getting no wins on the road.
I’m taking the Union on ML of -140.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Thursday, July 7 Best Bets & Update
We are really into the baseball grind now as we approach the All-Star break. All the teams are somewhere right around the half-way point in their seasons and we should have more than a decent enough sample size to make solid projections.
However, we are also into a time where off days are limited, and every team seems to be running into doubleheaders. That, along with injuries, means numerous minor leaguers coming up to pitch, which makes it more difficult to handicap.
Anyway, that’s why we’re in this for the long run. There will be ups and downs through every baseball betting season and this year is no different.
We won one of three plays yesterday as the Yankees destroyed the Pirates 16-0 to easily cover the RL for our win. We suffered losses as Houston fell to Kansas City and the Cubs edged the Brewers 2-1. We certainly correctly projected that Corbin Burnes would pitch well for Milwaukee but did not anticipate Chicago pitching shutting down the Brewers’ offense.
Today’s Best Bets
We have 13 more games on the schedule today and we’re going to take a closer look at five of them.
Orioles (first five RL -0.5, +125) vs. Angels – It will Jordan Lyles vs. Chase Silseth in tonight’s game at Camden Yards. The Orioles are quietly becoming a formidable team. They play in the American League East and will finish fifth behind all the big boys (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays), but they’ve won four straight games, gone 12-8 in the last 20 games and 17-13 in their last 30.
Lyles hasn’t been spectacular this year, but he has been solid with a 4-7 record and a 4.70 ERA. He also pitched 6.1 innings and gave up only one run in his last time out against Minnesota.
Silseth, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He’s also given up seven runs in his last six innings of work.
I’m going to take the bullpens out of it and just take the Orioles to win the first five innings.
Braves (-1.5 RL, -115) vs. Cardinals – Atlanta has won the first three games of this series and go for the sweep tonight with Spencer Strider on the mound. Strider has a 4-2 record with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He has been dominant in his last two times out, giving up just one run over 12 innings of work.
In addition, the Braves are on a roll, winning seven of their last 10 and 23 of their last 30. The Cardinals, on the other hand have lost six of their last seven and trying to stop the bleeding.
Lefty Matthew Liberatore will be on the mound for St. Louis tonight and enters tonight’s contest with a 5.26 ERA and a WHIP of 1.79. Also, the Braves are 20-8 against lefthanders this season.
I’m taking Atlanta on the RL to complete the sweep.
White Sox (-1.5 RL, -120) vs. Tigers – The White Sox haven’t met expectations as a team so far this season, but pitcher Dylan Cease has been every bit as good as they hoped. Cease is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA so far and he’s pitched every bit as good as his record indicates. He has struck out 125 batters in 86 innings of work.
The Tigers will counter with Beau Brieske, who is 1-6 with a 4.54 ERA. He’s given up 12 runs in his last 14 innings.
Chicago had a crazy 9-8 come-from-behind win over Minnesota yesterday. Expect that momentum to continue today.
I’m taking the White Sox on the RL.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks (over 9.5) – Austin Gomber vs. Dallas Keuchel – that’s pretty much all you have to say for this one.
Both pitchers have been terrible, and Keuchel is on his second team of the year. Gomber is 4-7 with an ERA of 6.53 while Keuchel is 2-6 with an 8.27 ERA and a WHIP over 2.00.
The game is in Arizona so it’s not the same hitters’ paradise as Coors Field, but I still think there will be a lot of runs scored off of these two pitchers.
I’m taking the over in this one.
Dodgers (-1.5 RL, -135) vs. Cubs – Again, we are focusing on the pitchers in this one. Tony Gonsolin, for the Dodgers, is 10-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. It’s really difficult to be better than that.
Gonsolin will be facing Mark Leiter, Jr. for the Cubs. Leiter is 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25 in 29.2 innings. Those are not terrible numbers, but it doesn’t stack up in this match up.
In addition, the Dodgers are 26-13 at home and 36-18 against right-handed pitching.
I’m taking the Dodgers on the RL.
Hopefully, we can get back on the winning track. Good luck with your own bets today!
Wednesday, July 6 Best Bets & Update
Ugh. We’ll get right into our rough day yesterday where we went just 1-3.
I totally misread Sandy Alcantara’s ability to bounce back from a big pitch load as he pitched eight innings and gave up just two hits and one run on 107 pitches. That’s back-to-back games now of over 100 pitches, but he’s been excellent.
We also had the Blue Jays and Giants – better teams with better pitchers going – and both lost outright. What a disaster?
Our lone win was the Dodgers, who beat the Rockies 5-3 to salvage the day.
The 1-3 record pushed our overall record on the site to 29-26 (53%).
We do try to pick plus money or near even money lines, so we are still making a little bit of money. But we do expect to pick up the pace moving forward.
There is a big slate of 14 baseball games today with four afternoon games and 10 night ones. Let’s see if we can get back on the winning track.
Today’s Best Bets
The theme today will be better teams with better pitchers and, in a few cases, better teams with better pitchers and coming off a loss.
Brewers (-1.5 RL -115) vs. Cubs – Chicago drubbed Milwaukee 8-3 last night and have won six of its last 10 games. The Brewers, though, have won seven of their last 10 and are 47-36 with a 13-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central.
The Brewers also send out righthander Corbin Burnes this afternoon against Chicago’s Adrian Sampson. Burnes has been stellar this season with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He has a record of 7-4 and has struck out 124 batters vs. only 25 walks in 99.1 innings.
Sampson has good numbers but has only thrown 16 innings so far this season.
We have the better team, the better pitcher, the home team and the team coming off the loss.
I’m taking the Cubs on the RL.
Yankees (-1.5 RL, -135) at Pirates – The Pirates knocked off the Yankees 5-2 yesterday in the first of this short, two-game series. It may be over simplifying things, but it’s hard to believe the Yanks will be swept by Pittsburgh.
The Yankees have baseball’s best record at 58-23 – that’s 25 more wins than the Pirates. In addition, the Luis Severino will be pitching tonight for New York and he brings a 4-3 record with a 3.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP into the contest. Contrast that with Mitch Keller, who will be on the mound for the Pirates. Keller has a 2-5 record with a 5.14 ERA and a WHIP of 1.53. He walks nearly four per nine innings and that’s a recipe for disaster against the Yankees.
So again, we have the better team with the better pitcher coming off a loss.
I’m taking the Yankees on the RL.
Astros (-1.5 RL, -130) vs. Royals – The Astros did not lose last night to the Royals like our other choices today. They won 9-7 and have, in fact, won eight straight games and nine of their last 10. During the eight-game win streak, they are 6-2 against the RL.
Houston has a 53-27 record while Kansas City is 29-50. The Astros are clearly the better team and are playing really well right now.
As far as pitching goes, tonight Cristian Javier of the Astros will be facing fellow righty Brad Keller for the Royals.
Javier is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Keller is 3-9 with a 4.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.33. So, we have the Astros as the better team, the hotter team and with the better pitcher.
I’m taking the Astros on the RL.
Good luck with your own bets!
Tuesday, July 5 Best Bets & Update
We return from a vacation and holiday break and jump right back into baseball. Hopefully, everyone had a profitable two weeks, and we can now gear up for the baseball dog days where we hope to find value on a daily basis.
We did finish our pre-vacation picks on June 20 by winning two of three (including a +180 and a +125) and improving our record to 28-23 (55%).
Our goal is to find plays that are plus money or close to even money each day. It may not happen every day, but we will do our best to find those games.
Today’s Best Bets
Angels (first five innings Over 1.5 runs +135) at Marlins – Yes, Sandy Alcantara has been excellent this season. He has an 8-3 record, an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00. In fact, he threw a complete game his last time out. However, he also threw 117 pitches. That’s a season high in pitches and many pitchers don’t immediately bounce back from that kind of pitch count.
We don’t have great confidence in the Angels, who have lost three straight so we’re just going to fade Alcantara little bit and say that he gives up more than one run in the first five innings. We get a nice +135 price on this and we’re going to take it.
Blue Jays (-1.5 -120) at A’s – The Blue Jays have lost three straight and even lost to Oakland yesterday as a heavy -275 favorite. As I’ve noted numerous times here, we’re big on regression. That’s with individual players and teams. Although it’s early July, Toronto is in a fight for its playoff life every time out.
The Jays will send out lefty Yusei Kikuchi against the A’s righty Adrian Martinez. Kikuchi hasn’t been awesome this season with a 3-4 record, a 4.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.52. However, his last time out he threw six innings and gave up just one run to Tampa Bay. In addition, the A’s are just 9-18 against lefthanders and an abysmal 9-28 at home.
I think the Jays bounce back against a bad A’s team and win convincingly. So, I’m taking Toronto -1.5.
Giants (-1.5 -105) vs. Diamondbacks – Similarly to the previous game, we have the Giants, fighting for playoff positioning, coming off a loss to Arizona yesterday.
The D-backs will be sending out lefty Tyler Gilbert, who has an 0-3 record with a 7.88 ERA in just 16 innings of action. The Giants, by the way, are 15-8 against lefties this season.
In addition, the Giants will start Alex Wood (5-7, 5.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). Those numbers don’t look outstanding, but he does have 71 strikeouts against 19 walks in 73 innings. Also, his advanced analytics show he is due for positive regression. In short, he’s pitched better than the ERA says he has.
I’m looking for the Giants to bounce back and win by more than the 1.5 runs.
Dodgers (-1.5 -115) vs Rockies – It’s hard to believe but it’s Colorado that leads this season series 4-3 so far. The Dodgers did win 5-3 last night and it’s hard to believe the Rockies will keep this edge for much longer. Clearly, Los Angeles is the better team with a 50-29 record and a 24-13 record at home.
The Rockies, on the other hand, are 35-45 on the season and an even worse 12-24 on the road.
German Marquez is the starter for Colorado tonight and he’s not been very good this season. Marquez has a 4-6 record with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. His last time out against the Dodgers he gave up five runs in 3.1 innings and left the game with a thumb injury.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers will send Mitch White to the mound. White has started six games and has appeared in 11 this season. He has a 1-1 record, a 3.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19.
I look for the Dodgers to dominate tonight and even the season series with a team they are significantly better than.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Monday, June 20 Update and Best Bets
It was a big weekend of baseball and golf leading into our upcoming vacation week. Matthew Fitzpatrick secured his first major by shooting a 68 and finishing -6 to edge Will Zalatoris and Scottie Scheffler by one stroke. For Zalatoris, it was his second near miss as he lost in a playoff in last month’s PGA and for Scheffler, it was nearly a second major this season as he captured the Masters in April.
It was great drama on a great old course and brought a respite from the onslaught of LIV Golf talk.
Also, over the weekend, the Colorado Avalanche dominated the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-0 in Saturday night’s second game of the Stanley Cup finals. Colorado now leads the series 2-0 as the series heads to Tampa for tonight’s third game.
Sunday was an interesting baseball day as well as Underdogs won 11 of 15 games. That really is against the prevailing trend on the season as Favorites have won over 60% of the time.
Friday’s Best Bets recap
We split two baseball games on Friday as Carlos Rodon pitched a gem for the Giants as they knocked off the Pirates 2-0 and covered the -1.5 RL for us.
It didn’t work out as well in our other game as Rockies topped the Padres 10-4 in a game we totally whiffed on. Colorado’s offense got to San Diego pitcher Mackenzie Gore early and never looked back.
The 1-1 record brings our cumulative record to 26-22 (54%) since May 24.
Today’s Best Bets
We’re going to focus on three plus-money opportunities tonight and see if we can increase the at 54% winning percentage and make some money at the same time.
Lightning (-0.5, +180 first period) vs. Avalanche – If the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions want to have any chance of a three-peat, they need to win tonight’s third game. That being the case, I feel the Lightning will come out flying in the first period. Colorado looks like the better team but after Saturday’s 7-0 drubbing, you have to feel that Tampa Bay’s last chance in this series is going to be early tonight.
We think Tampa Bay wins the first period outright and with that +180 price, it’s too good to pass up.
Rays (+110 first five) vs. Yankees – Once again, we feel it’s too hard to pass on Shane McClanahan getting plus money – even if It’s against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees. McClanahan has a 7-3 record with a 1.84 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. He has 105 strikeouts and just 14 walks in 78.1 innings pitched. The numbers are just outstanding.
Yes, we know he’s going against the Yankees, who are 9-1 in their last 10 and the best team in baseball right now. We also know Cole is pitching well too. He has a 3.33 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, so, clearly, he hasn’t been too shabby.
However, to get plus money on somebody with McClanahan’s numbers is way too hard to let slide by. We are taking Tampa Bay in the first five innings to get +110 ML.
Pirates (-0.5 RL, +125) vs. Cubs – We’re always looking for pitching mismatches and we’ll take them even if they come with the Pirates and a winless pitcher. J.T. Brubaker is 0-7 for Pittsburgh this season but hasn’t pitched as bad as that record. He has a 4.50 ERA and a xERA of 3.83.
On the other hand, the Cubs will have Caleb Kilian on the mound. Kilian has only pitched nine innings so far this season and has ERA of 8.00 with six strikeouts and six walks.
We feel Brubaker, although winless, is far more reliable than Kilian. Both teams are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. Somebody has to win today, so we’re going with the Pirates and Brubaker in the first five innings.
Good luck with your own bets today and we’ll be back next week with more information and best bets!
Friday, June 17 Update and Best Bets
The Golden State Warriors knocked off the Boston Celtics 103-90 last night to capture the NBA title. The Warriors won in six games and were dominant over the last three games, winning each by 10 or more. Golden State did it last night as a four-point underdog as well.
Basketball is over now, but we still have Game 2 of the Stanley Cup finals tomorrow night and we have a full weekend of very interesting U.S. Open golf to watch and bet. You can see my six-man DFS lineup here.
Baseball will remain the mainstay, however. We have 16 games today with the Nationals and Phillies playing a day-night doubleheader.
Yesterday’s recap
As we mentioned, the Warriors, as a four-point underdog, beat the Celtics in game 6 in Boston to win the world championship. Golden State won and covered in each of the last three games of the series.
In MLB action, Favorites were 7-2 while Unders went 6-3. Home teams were just 2-7 on the day.
Best Bets recap
It was a mixed bag for me yesterday as we went 2-1 in our baseball plays but dropped our first quarter bet on the Celtics at -1.5. Boston jumped out to a 12-2 lead, and I felt pretty good. But it all went downhill from there as the Warriors outscored the Celtics 25-10 the rest of the quarter.
As far as baseball goes, we total whiffed on the Blue Jays-Orioles game. We had the Jay -1.5 but Baltimore rolled to an easy 10-2 victory.
While totally missing on that game, we totally nailed the mismatch that was the Phillies-Nationals. The Phillies jumped out to 7-0 lead in the third inning on their way to a 10-1 victory.
We also had the Rangers -1.5 against the Tigers and feel fortunate to get that 3-1 win. We were on the money with Martin Perez pitching great for the Rangers but missed on the Tigers pitching holding down the Texas offense. Fortunately, the Rangers got three runs in the top of the ninth to pull out the win and the cover.
The 2-2 record on the day brings our record since May 24 to 25-21 (54%). We’ll keep grinding away on the baseball and feel we will continue to be profitable.
Today’s Best Bets
Giants (-1.5, -120) at Pirates – As you know, we look for mismatches and we feel we have one here. The Giants are eight games over .500 while the Pirates are 12 games under and are just 1-9 in their last 10. Carlos Rodon has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the last couple of years and he’s on the mound for San Francisco tonight.
Rodon has a 5-4 record with a 3.18 ERA. He’s averaging over 11 strikeouts per nine innings and gives up only .55 home runs per nine innings.
Rodon will be facing Zach Thompson of the Pirates, who has a 3-4 record and a 4.50 ERA.
I am taking the Giants and laying the 1.5.
Padres (-1.5, -105) at Rockies – We feel this is another mismatch between both teams and pitchers. San Diego is 41-24 overall, 24-11 on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 games and 27-8 vs. the RL on the road. The Rockies are just 27-37 on the season and 4-6 in their last 10.
As far as the pitching goes, it’s lefty Mackenzie Gore for the Padres and lefthanded Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Gore is 4-2 with a 2.50 ERA while Freeland is 2-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Also, San Diego is 16-6 against lefthanders.
I’m taking the Padres to stay hot and win on the -1.5 RL.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Thursday, June 16 Update and Best Bets
The Colorado Avalanche got the Stanley Cup Finals off to an exciting start with a 4-3 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Avalanche won as -155 favorites and are now -285 to win the series. Game 2 will be Saturday night in Denver.
Tonight, we have Game 6 of the NBA Finals as Golden State, with a 3-2 series lead, visits Boston. The Celtics, who need to win to send the series back to San Francisco for Game 7, are four-point favorites tonight.
In addition to the basketball game, we have nine baseball games on a light Thursday schedule.
Yesterday’s recap
Favorites went 10-5 in MLB action yesterday and have won 61.2% of the games this season. Overs went 9-4-2 and road teams went 9-6.
In the Stanley Cup playoffs, we already noted the Avs 4-3 victory. Home teams went 7-3 in the conference final round. The total for last night’s game was six and, obviously, the game went over.
Best Bets recap
Ugh. It was not a good day at all as we lost both of our bets. We took a chance on Tampa Bay as we couldn’t resist pitcher Shane McClanahan getting plus money. The Yankees, though, jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held on for a 4-3 victory. We thought about taking the Under or first five Under as Nestor Cortez was on the mound for the Yanks. However, we wouldn’t have won either of those either as New York led 4-0 after five (on a total of 3) and the full game total was 7.
In our other play, we had Toronto -1.5 over Baltimore. The Blue Jays jumped a 6-1 lead and we felt like we were in good shape. The Orioles, though, rallied to tie the game 6-6 before the Jays won it 7-6 in the bottom of the 10th.
The two losses bring our record since May 24 to 23-19 (55%). We look to get back on the winning track today.
Today’s Best Bets
Celtics (-1.5 first quarter) vs. Warriors – As we mentioned earlier, the NBA Finals get back to Boston for Game 6 tonight. The Celtics need to win to keep the series alive and we expect them to come out with great energy and motivation. The home team has won the first quarter in each of the five games so far and we expect that to continue tonight.
I’m taking the Celtics -1.5 in the first quarter.
Blue Jays (-1.5 -125) vs. Orioles – These two teams have split the first two games and it certainly hasn’t been as easy for Toronto as many people thought it would be. The Blue Jays, however, send out their ace today in Kevin Gausman. Gausman is 5-5 this season with a 2.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19. He has struck out 77 and walked just 10 in 70 innings of work.
Tyler Wells will get the ball for the Orioles. Wells has a 3-4 record with a 3.86 ERA. He’s struck out 33 and walked 11 in 53.2 innings of work. He certainly hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as Gausman and he does show some signs of negative regression.
I’m taking the Blue Jays to finally put everything together and win this one handily.
Phillies (-1.5, -125) vs. Nationals – The Phillies have won 10 of their last 12 games while the Nats just got swept by the Braves. In addition to two teams heading in opposite directions, we feel we have a distinct pitching mismatch as well.
Zack Wheeler will get the start for the Phillies and he brings a 5-3 record with a 2.84 ERA into the game. Wheeler as a WHIP of 1.07 with 75 strikeouts and just 14 walks in 63.1 innings.
Washington counters with left-hander Patrick Corbin, who sports a 3-8 record with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.72. He has 55 strikeouts and 25 walks in 66 innings.
Also, the Phillies are 32-31 overall but 12-8 against lefthanders. I’m looking for the Phillies to stay hot and Nats to stay cold and am taking the Phillies on RL.
Rangers (-1.5, +110) vs. Tigers – Once again, we have what looks like a pretty distinct pitching mismatch. Martin Perez will be on the hill for Texas while Detroit sends out Beau Brieske.
Perez has been very good this season with a 4-2 record, a 2.18 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10. He has 60 strikeouts and 18 walks in 74.1 innings.
Brieske has a 1-5 record, a 4.35 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has 31 strikeouts and 15 walks 47.2 innings of work so far this season. While those numbers really don’t compare to Perez’s, they could be even worse as his xERA is a whopping 6.40.
I’m thinking it will be difficult to switch all those numbers into the Tigers’ favor. I’m taking the Rangers on the RL.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Wednesday, June 15 Update and Best Bets
After what seems like forever, the Stanley Cup Finals get underway tonight with game 1 in Denver between the Lightning and the Avalanche. Colorado is a -155 favorite tonight and a -175 favorite to win the series. We also have a full slate of 15 baseball games so it’s a busy day.
While we like the Avalanche to win the series, we’re going to pass on tonight’s game. After sweeping Edmonton, Colorado has been off for nine days. That’s an eternity. The Avalanche will, obviously, be well rested, but will they be rusty as well. We’ll see how this first game plays out before jumping back in for game two.
Yesterday’s recap
Favorites dominated the day in MLB with a 13-3 record while Unders went 11-5. Home teams went 8-8. Favorites are now winning at over a 61% clip on the season. The Orioles over the Reds, Marlins over the Phillies and Reds over the Diamondbacks were the three upsets on the day.
Best Bets recap
We won both of our best bets yesterday as the Red Sox dominated the A’s 6-1 and the Giants topped the Royals 4-2. We had both winners on the -1.5 RL and were happy to get both wins. It’s all fulfilling when the games play out close to how we handicap them. Those wins bring our record since May 24 to 23-17 (57%). We look forward to keeping that winning going today.
Today’s Best Bets
There is a full schedule of games today, but the pickings are slim when it comes to games I like. However, we’ve identified two where we believe there is value.
Blue Jays (-1.5 RL, -140) vs. Orioles – Baltimore eked out a 6-5 victory over Toronto last night after getting pounded 11-1 Monday night. I can’t imagine that the Blue Jays will lose this series to the Orioles and expect them to bounce back tonight.
As I’ve talked about a lot in this space, I look for pitching and team mismatches as well as potential for regression when making my plays.
Jose Berrios will be on the mound for Toronto tonight and, while, he hasn’t been spectacular this season, he has given up just two runs in his last 15 innings (two starts, two wins).
Left-hander Bruce Zimmerman gets the ball for the Orioles and he hasn’t been so great this year either. The difference is that his last two starts have been abysmal. He gave up 10 hits and seven runs in 4.2 innings against Kansas City and he allowed 10 hits and five runs in 5.2 innings against Cleveland.
For this reason, we like the pitching matchup and we know the Jays are the better team. Coming off a loss last night, we’re going with Toronto on the RL.
Rays (+115 ML) vs. Yankees – The Yankees are the best team in baseball with an incredible 45-16 record so far. However, it’s really hard to pass up Shane McClanahan getting plus money – even if he’s facing the Yankees and Nestor Cortez.
McClanahan is 7-2 with a 1.87 ERA this season. He’s averaging 12.19 strikeouts and just 1.62 walks per nine innings. He’s been awesome and you’re just not going to get him at plus money the rest of the season.
The obvious problem is that he’s facing the Yankees and Cortez, who has also been excellent this year. Cortez has a 5-2 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. However, the lone blemish came in his last start when he gave up seven hits and four runs in 4.1 innings to the Twins.
As I said, it’s not very often you get a plus money opportunity on someone with the credentials of McClanahan. We’re taking the Rays on the ML.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Tuesday, June 14 Update and Best Bets
Golden State got a stranglehold on the NBA Finals with a 104-94 win over Boston Monday night. The Warriors covered as a four-point favorite. I passed on the game and am kicking myself for not taking the Warriors -2 in the first quarter. So, even though we had a profitable night with our baseball wins, I still feel a bit unfulfilled.
Yesterday’s recap
As I noted, the Warriors covered in their win over the Celtics. Boston had been 7-0 after a loss in the playoffs. Game 6 is Thursday so we’ll if the Celtics can keep the series alive.
In MLB action, favorites went 7-3 yesterday and have won 60.7% of the games this season. Overs went 6-4 and home teams split 5-5.
Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals will be tomorrow night in Denver.
Best Bets recap
We went 2-1 yesterday and pushed our overall record since May 24 to 21-17 (55%).
The Padres, behind a strong pitching effort by Yu Darvish, beat the Cubs 4-1 for a ML win and the Blue Jays mauled the Orioles 11-1 for RL win.
The lone loss on the evening came as the Astros gave up three runs in the bottom of the eighth to lose 5-3 to the Rangers.
Today’s Best Bets
We try to keep our bets between -140 and +140 so we try to identify opportunities that fit in that range. If you see me do a lot of RL bets, it’s because we’re trying to get a better price.
In saying that, you’ll see that our two plays today fit that model.
Red Sox (-1.5 -115) vs. A’s – Most days I really try to look for pitching mismatches and we’ve found one here as Nick Pivetta goes for the Red Sox against Jared Koenig for Oakland. In addition to the pitching mismatch, we get a hot team in Boston (8-2 in its last 10) vs. a cold team in the A’s (1-9 in their last 10).
Pivetta is 5-5 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP on the season. He got banged around by the Angels in his last time out but before that had given up just one run in his previous 13 innings.
Koenig has only pitched four innings so far this season and gave up four runs to Atlanta in that outing.
Given all that, I’m taking the Red Sox -1.5.
Giants (-1.5, -120) vs Royals – This, on paper, looks like another pitching mismatch, another team mismatch and matchup where the Giants have a good record against left-handers.
Logan Webb will be on the mound for San Francisco, and he has a 5-2 record with a 3.77 ERA. His xERA is 3.45 and in his last outing he gave up two runs to Colorado.
The Giants are 11-6 against left-handers and the Royals will send Kris Bubic to the mound. Bubic is 0-3 with a 9.13 ERA. He really hasn’t been that unlucky either. He has a WHIP of 2.03 and has 18 strikeouts against 16 walks.
Throw in the facts that the Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 and the Royals are 4-6 and I feel this has the makings of big San Francisco win.
We’re taking the Giants -1.5.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Monday, June 13 Update and Best Bets
We start another big week of sports today with 10 baseball games and Game 5 of the NBA Finals. We are also set for the Stanley Cup finals as Tampa Bay dispatched of the Rangers in six games and are now poised to face the Avalanche in search of their third straight Cup.
Golden State heads into tonight’s game as a 3.5-point favorite (some books have pushed it to -4) after winning game four in Boston Friday night. As of Monday morning, over 64% of the bets and 75% of the money has come in on the Warriors.
In the NHL, the Lightning beat the Rangers 2-1 Saturday night to win their Eastern Conference final matchup with New York. The Rangers had won the first two games, but Tampa Bay came back to win four straight and now have a chance to defend their Cup title. Game one is Wednesday night in Denver and Colorado is a -165 favorite.
Best Bets recap
Friday wasn’t a banner day for me, as I went 0-for-3 in three baseball plays. We had the Brewers (-1.5), the Rays (+100) and the Reds in the first five innings against the Cardinals. The Brewers were upset by the Nats, the Twins stayed hot and beat the Rays and, while Luis Castillo pitched really well for the Reds, they were shutout 2-0 by St. Louis.
That drops our record to 19-16 (54%) since May 24 when we launched this site. That’s the lowest percentage we’ve been so we have some work to do to build back up.
Today’s Best Bets
As we mentioned, Game 5 of the NBA Finals is tonight in San Francisco. The bets and the money are coming in on the Warriors. We’ve been big first quarter bettors during the playoffs, but I don’t see that tonight. Usually, that favors the home team, but we think the Celtics will ready tonight after the way the second half played out Friday night. We’re going to pass on this game.
There are 10 baseball games today and we’re going to look at three of them.
Blue Jays (-1.5, -130) vs. Orioles – Alek Manoah is on the mound for the Blue Jays tonight and we think this sets up for a giant pitching mismatch. Manoah is 7-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. While is advanced stats don’t quite match that performance, we don’t think the Orioles are a team that has the offense to take advantage.
Meanwhile, the Orioles will start Kyle Bradish, who has a 6.45 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. He hasn’t pitched quite that badly, but it certainly hasn’t been great.
I’m taking the Blue Jays (-1.5).
Astros (-1.5, +100) at Rangers – Houston has been strong on the road this season (21-13) and really good against left-handed pitching (14-6). They’re on the road tonight to face Texas, who is pitching left-hander Taylor Hearn. Hearn is 4-4 on the season with a 5.40 ERA and a high 1.66 WHIP. Control has been an issue as he has walked 25 in 50 innings.
The Astros counter with right-hander Cristian Javier, who has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has a good strikeout to walk ratio of 56-16. Javier was roughed up by Seattle In his last outing and was pushed back in the rotation. But he has given up two runs or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts and with the extra rest, we are looking for a strong performance.
We’re taking the Astros (-1.5).
Padres (-130) at Cubs – This is another game where we feel there are clear advantages with the better overall team, the better pitcher and a favorable matchup vs. left-handed pitching.
San Diego is 37-24 overall, has won seven of its last 10 game and has a 15-6 record against left-handers.
The Cubs, on the other hand, are 23-36, have lost seven of their last 10 and are starting left-hander Justin Steele, who as a record of 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA.
The Padres start Yu Darvish, who has a 3-1 record with a 3.61 ERA. This is not a game to overthink, I’m taking the Padres on the ML.
Those are our best bets of the day. Good luck with yours!
Friday, June 10 Update and Best Bets
Friday is a huge day on the sports betting landscape with 15 baseball games and Game 4 of the NBA Finals on the schedule.
The Tampa Bay Lightning took a giant step toward reaching the Stanley Cup Finals with a 3-1 come-from-behind win over the Rangers at Madison Square Garden last night. The win gives the Lightning a 3-2 series lead and moved them within one win of facing the Avalanche for the Stanley Cup.
On the diamond, Favorites went 8-3, Overs went 6-5 and home teams went 6-5 yesterday.
Although, I’m going to take a pass on the Warriors-Celtics game tonight, it does provide a good deal of intrigue. The Celtics, after opening as 3.5 favorites, are now four-point favorites. Golden State just has not been very good on the road ATS this season, going just 20-28 during the season and 2-6 in the playoffs. Favorites, meanwhile, are 52-38 ATS during the playoffs.
So, if you’re inclined to play this game, many of the numbers point toward Boston. I’m having a tough time thinking the Warriors are done, so I’m just going to watch and enjoy the game.
Yesterday’s Best Bets
Well, I certainly didn’t read the Dodgers-White Sox game correctly. I looked for a low-scoring affair between two really good pitchers. Instead, we got a 20-run slugfest.
In addition, we missed on the Giants-Rockies game as Colorado, which closed as a +210 underdog, beat San Francisco 4-2.
Thankfully, the Braves defeated the Pirates 3-1 so we were able to salvage our RL bet with that win.
Today’s Best Bets
Milwaukee (-1.5 RL -110) at Washington – The Brewers have lost six straight and we think they will get healthy at the lowly Nationals. Left-hander Aaron Ashby takes the mound for Milwaukee while Erick Fedde for the Nats. Washington is just 8-12 against lefties this season and Ashby is a strong positive regression candidate. His record is just 1-4 and his ERA is only 3.13. Even better is his xERA of 2.62.
Fedde is 3-4 with an ERA of 4.88 and his advanced stats say that’s about where he should be.
I’m looking for the Brewers to win big and am taking them on the RL.
Tampa Bay (+100 ML) at Minnesota – I feel there is good value here with the Rays being the underdog. They have Drew Rasmussen on the mound, and he has a 5-2 record with a 3.02 ERA. His advanced stats say that’s about where he should for how he’s pitched. In addition, the Rays are 9-5 against lefthanders this season and the Twins will be pitching lefty Devin Smeltzer.
Now, Smeltzer is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, which looks very good. However, he is, without a doubt, a negative regression candidate with an xERA of 3.41 and a xFIP of 4.65. Remember, if there is a big difference between ERA and xFIP, regression (either positive or negative) is probably coming.
I’m hoping this regression takes place today and will take the good price on the little bit better pitcher and the little bit better team.
Cincinnati (First Five ML -110) at St. Louis – When the Reds were only winning three games in April, you would’ve been hard pressed to tell me that I would be betting on them any time this season – especially on the road against a better team. However, that’s what we’re doing today as we like the starting pitching matchup.
Luis Castillo is going for the Reds, and he has a 2-3 record with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. All his numbers point to the fact that he’s pitching to his ERA and WHIP so we don’t expect any regression here.
The Cardinals will have Andre Pallante on the mound. He has only a 1.23 ERA, but his xERA is 3.51 and his xFIP is 4.04. The numbers point to negative regression.
Also, since that horrible start, Cincinnati has been a .500 baseball team. We think this matchup leads to a good price for the first five innings.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Thursday, June 9 Update and Best Bets
If you wanted a full day of sports watching yesterday, it was certainly available. There were a couple of afternoon baseball games, full slate at night and then Game 3 of the NBA Finals later in the evening.
Today will be similar with five afternoon baseball games, six in the evening, Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Eastern Conference finals and the Canadian Open also begins today on the PGA Tour.
We’ll get to our Best Bets for today in a bit, but first we’ll look back at yesterday.
Yesterday’s recap
The Celtics beat the Warriors 116-100 to take a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. Boston covered as a 3.5-point favorite and the game went over the 214 total.
Favorites went 9-5 in MLB action with Unders going 7-6-1. Favorites have won 60.8% of games so far this season.
Although there was no hockey yesterday, I do want to note that the Rangers host the Lightning tonight in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference final. Despite being on the road and the fact they lost the first two games of the series in Madison Square Garden Tampa Bay is a -130 favorite. Favorites are 6-2 during this round of the playoffs and 53-28 overall in the playoffs.
Our Best Bets recap
We won two of our three bets yesterday to move our record to 18-11 (62%) since we’ve launched this site on May 25.
In the NBA, we took Boston (-1.5) to win the first quarter and the Celtics came through with a 33-22 lead after the first period. We felt strongly that the Celtics would come out highly motivated in their first home game of the Finals.
We also split our two baseball bets, winning by taking underdog Arizona over Cincinnati and losing by taking the Giants on the RL. The D-Backs, behind Merrill Kelly, easily dispatched of the Reds 7-0. Meanwhile, the Giants beat the Rockies 2-1 in 10 innings but did not cover the 1.5 run line. That’s the second day in a row where we’ve had the winning side in one of our bets but lost on the RL.
Again, that’s price of trying to get a better price and we’ll continue to do that when it makes sense.
Today’s Best Bets
Dodgers at White Sox (Under 8.5) – We have a good pitching matchup this afternoon in Chicago as left-hander Tyler Anderson goes for the Dodgers against Dylan Cease. Anderson has been sensational this season as he comes in with a 7-0 record and a 2.59 ERA. Cease has been quite good, himself, with a 4-2 record and a 3.39 ERA.
The total on this game is 8.5. For comparison sakes, six of the other 10 games have totals that are lower. It’s questionable whether the pitching in any of those games is better than what we have here.
For that reason, I’m going to take the Under here. Also, it may be worth looking at the first five Under of 4.5 if you are so inclined. We’re actually going to take both.
Braves (-1.5 RL -135) vs. Pirates – The Braves have won seven straight games and have a decided pitching advantage tonight with Max Fried going against J.T. Brubaker. Fried has a 5-2 record with a 2.74 ERA while Brubaker is 0-5 with a 4.70 ERA.
We like the better team with the better pitcher at home and we’ll lay the 1.5 runs.
Giants (-1.5 RL -125) vs. Rockies – We’re going back to the Giants well after losing on the RL last night. Similarly to the Braves-Pirates game, we feel the Giants are the better team with the better pitcher and the Rockies are not a good road team (8-16).
Logan Webb goes for San Francisco and he has a 5-1 record with a 3.82 ERA. It will Austin Gomber for the Rockies and he has a 2-6 record with a 6.54 ERA. Webb also has the advantage in other analytics such as WHIP, xERA and FIP.
We’re going to try again to take the Giants -1.5.
Good luck with all of your own bets today!
Wednesday, June 8 Update and Best Bets
Today is a big day as the NBA Finals reconvene in Boston for Game 3 and we have a full slate of baseball games.
Recap of yesterday
The Tampa Bay Lightning, as -179 favorite, evened their series with the Rangers with a 4-1 victory. Home teams have won all four games of the series so far. They go back to Madison Square Garden for game 5 tomorrow night.
It was a good night for the favorites in Major League Baseball with 11 wins against only five losses. Over/Unders went 7-7-2 and home teams went 9-7.
Yesterday’s Best Bets
We had the winning side in the Braves-A’s game, but we took the RL and Atlanta won 3-2. That’s how it goes sometimes when you’re trying to get the better price. We figured Kyle Wright would pitch well for the Braves, which he did, giving up just two runs in eight innings. But Cole Irvin and the bullpen held Atlanta down as well.
The Astros, however, did come through with a 4-1 victory over the Mariners. We had Houston on the RL as well and were at least able to salvage a split.
The 1-1 record moves our overall record to 16-10 (61%). We will continue to try to give bets with decent prices so we can make some money. At 61%, we’re doing okay so far.
Today’s Best Bets
Celtics (-1.5 First Quarter) vs. Warriors – Even in game two when the Warriors won handily, the Celtics led most of the first quarter. It wasn’t until the very end that Golden State finally grabbed the league. We expect an emotionally charged Boston fan base and team tonight. That, generally, means coming out of the gate with a lot of energy. We’re going to take the Celtics (-1.5) to win the first quarter.
Arizona (+100) at Cincinnati – The Reds won the first two games of this series, scoring 21 runs in the process. We expect it will be a little more difficult today against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly. Kelly has a 3.66 ERA and a WHIP of 1.37 in 59 innings of work. He’s pitched to his ERA and, although it’s not great, we think it will be better than what Mike Minor can offer the Reds.
Minor has thrown one four-inning outing so far this season after returning from a shoulder injury. He gave up three home runs and five runs altogether in his first outing. We feel he will improve but can he improve enough to stop the D-Backs today?
In addition, the Reds are going for the sweep in this series. And, while they’ve been playing better as of late, we don’t feel they’re good enough to be sweeping anyone.
We’re taking Arizona at +100.
Giants (-1.5 RL -105) vs. Rockies – The Giants (-235) are heavily favored tonight against the Rockies and we feel they should be. The pitching matchup is a mismatch as Alex Wood will go for San Francisco and Antonio Senzatela will pitch for Colorado.
Wood enters the game with a 4.66 ERA, but he’s pitched better than that according to the other advanced analytics.
Senzatela, meanwhile, has not been so good. He has an ERA of 5.40 and xERA of 7.25. He is striking out only about three batters every nine innings.
The Rockies, also, are a terrible road team that actually won last night.
We feel regression coming everywhere. Wood will have positive regression, an already bad Senzatela will have negative regression and the Rockies aren’t going to win another game in this series.
We’re taking the Giants on the RL to get -105 pricing.
Good luck with your bets today!
Tuesday, June 7 Update and Best Bets
It was a light baseball day yesterday, but we are back to a full schedule today. We also have a Stanley Cup Eastern Conference final game three to look at.
We only made one bet yesterday and lost it as Mariners upset the Astros. That brings our record to 15-9 since our launch, which still is profitable.
Yesterday’s recap
The Avalanche topped the Oilers 6-5 in overtime to sweep the Western Conference final series and await the winner of the Tampa Bay-New York Rangers series.
Favorites went 3-2 on a light MLB schedule. Road teams went 4-1 and Over/Unders were 2-2 with no action on the rain-shortened Reds-Diamondbacks game
Yesterday’s Best Bet
We missed on this one as the Mariners upset the Astros 7-4. We thought Houston would score against Robbie Ray but we didn’t see Seattle banging around Cristian Javier like it did. As we noted earlier, that brings our overall record to 15-9 since we launched. We’re still profitable and we’ll still try to pick games where the price is good.
Today’s Best Bets
Braves (-1.5 -115) vs. Athletics – When we’re not looking for complete pitching mismatches, we’re looking for pitchers that are due to show negative regression. Oakland’s Cole Irvin fits this description. Irvin comes in with a nifty ERA of just 2.96. However, his xERA is a hefty 5.07. We feel regression is coming soon and why wouldn’t it happen against Atlanta, a team that is 13-6 against left-handed pitching this year.
Not only that, but the Braves will have Kyle Wright on the mound and all Wright has done is post a 5-3 record with a 2.41 ERA. Yes, his xERA is 3.43, but we feel that he is better than Irvin at this point.
The Braves are big -220 favorites on the ML, so we’re going to take the Braves on the RL.
Astros (-1.5 -120) vs. Mariners – We’re going back to the Houston well again today as the Astros, behind Justin Verlander, host the Mariners. As we noted, we look for pitching mismatches and we have one here as Verlander faces Chris Flexen for Seattle.
Flexen enters this game with an ERA of 4.55 and a xERA of 5.51. So, he hasn’t been great and he could be worse. That doesn’t seem like it will be good enough against Houston. The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games, 13-7 in their last 20 and 22-8 over their last 30. They are 35-16 overall and 14-6 at home, having played just 20 home games so far.
Meanwhile, Verlander has a 6-2 record with a 2.23 ERA. He’s been dominant with 61 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 64 innings.
Houston is a big favorite, so, again, we’re going to take the Astros on the RL.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Monday, June 6 Update and Best Bet
There was a lot of action over the weekend across the sports landscape with full slates of baseball games, the Stanley Cup conference finals and the NBA Finals.
We ease into the week with a lighter schedule today, but that just means we’re able to focus more on each game and possible play.
The good thing about the weekend is that we went 4-1 with our picks to bring our record to 15-8 since launching over two weeks ago. That 65% winning percentage may not be sustainable, but we’ll keep doing our best to share our thought processes and techniques to help guide you to winnings.
Weekend recap
Golden State, buoyed by a huge third quarter, beat Boston 107-88 to easily cover as a 4.5-point favorite. The win evened the series 1-1 as the two teams head east for games three and four.
In the NHL, Colorado beat Edmonton 4-2 Saturday night to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the Western Conference finals while Tampa Bay avoided the same fate as the Oilers by rallying past the Rangers 3-2 Sunday to pull within 2-1 in that series.
Favorites and underdogs went 7-7 Sunday in the major league baseball action. Overs went 8-6-1 and road teams went a dominating 12-3. Favorites still are winning 60.7% of the games so far this season.
Our Best Bets recap
As we noted earlier, we went 4-1 over the weekend helped by a perfect 3-0 in Friday night baseball games.
We had the Rays (-1.5) over the White Sox and Tampa Bay scored four runs in the first inning on its way to the 6-3 win.
We also had the Giants (ML) over the Marlins. San Francisco jumped to a 6-0 lead and never looked back on its way to a 15-6 demolition of Miami.
Finally on Friday, we had the Yankees (-1.5) over the Tigers. This game was never in doubt as New York romped to a 13-0 win.
Saturday in the NHL, we had Edmonton (+.5) in the first period and were fortunate to get out with a scoreless tie in the first 20 minutes. But, hey, we’ll take the win.
And in last night’s Golden State-Boston game, we feel we had the right idea but didn’t get the win. We had the Warriors (-1.5) in the first quarter and should’ve just taken them in the full game. Golden State led 31-30 after the first quarter so it did not cover. The Warriors completely dominated the second half in their must-win situation.
Still, a 4-1 weekend is a profitable one. We’ll look to keep that going today.
Today’s Best Bet
Astros (-1.5 +120) vs. Mariners – If you’ve followed along with our baseball picks, you know we try to identify pitching mismatches. Based on the teams involved, we feel we have one in this Houston-Seattle game. Seattle sends out lefty Robbie Ray, who really has not had a bad year. However, the Astros are 14-4 against left-handers this season. Also, Houston counters with Cristian Javier, who has been very strong so far this season with a 2.41 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07. He has also struck 52 batters in 41 innings vs. only 15 walks.
Ray has a 4-6 record with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Ray has also been a little stronger at home than the road.
Combine those pitching stats with team stats such as favorites that made the playoffs last year against teams that didn’t make the playoffs are winning at a 65% clip so far this season. Also, the Astros are 31-12 as a favorite and the Mariners are 12-21 as an underdog.
The Astros on the ML are -160 so we’re going to take the RL to get a plus-money price of +120.
Good luck with your own bets today!
Friday, June 3 Update and Best Bets
The Boston Celtics made a giant statement in Game 1 of the NBA Finals last night with an incredible fourth quarter that led to a 120-108 victory.
The Celtics were 3.5-point underdogs and now are on the cusp of taking complete control of the series before ever playing a home game.
We split our four baseball bets last night to bring our record to 11-7 in the last two weeks. Since it’s Friday, this week we will give you a couple of weekend bets to go with our Friday Best Bets.
Yesterday’s recap
As we noted, the Celtics, as an underdog, beat the Warriors in the first game of the NBA Finals. The favorites still lead in the playoffs 47-35 ATS. The 228 total went over 214, although Unders still lead 48-34.
The Avalanche blanked the Oilers 4-0 to take a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup playoff Western Conference final series. After 14 goals in game 1, the goals stayed under the total of 7. Favorites are 47-29 during the playoffs while the Overs still lead 42-32-2.
Favorites went 8-2 in baseball yesterday and are winning at a 60.7% clip so far this season. Unders went 7-5 yesterday and have won 52.8% of the time this season.
Yesterday’s Best Bets
As we noted earlier, we split our four games yesterday. We won with the Cubs in the first five innings over the Cardinals as we correctly predicted the Cubs would knock around Matthew Liberatore. Chicago led 5-2 after five.
We had the over (9.5) in the Reds-Nats game and came up just short as the Reds won 8-1. We were correct in feeling the Reds would hit Joan Adnon but Cincinnati’s Graham Ashcroft pitched better than we thought. We probably should’ve taken the Nationals horrid offense more into consideration. Washington has only scored one run in the last 28 innings.
We also missed on the Yankees (-1.5). New York did beat the Angels 2-1, but only went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position. This should’ve been a bigger win, but it wasn’t. Oh well. I don’t think we handicapped this wrong. We just had a bad result.
Along with the Cubs, we also won with the Marlins in the first five innings against the Giants. The Marlins were buoyed by Sandy Alcantara’s strong effort on the mound. Alcantara pitched seven shutout innings and Miami scratched across a run in the second on their way to a 1-0 lead after five and a 3-0 victory.
Today’s Best Bets
Rays (-1.5) +105 vs. White Sox – This is a pitching mismatch as Shane McClanahan faces Vince Velasquez. McClanahan has been terrific this year averaging over 12 strikeouts and less than two walks per nine innings. He has an ERA of 2.01 and all of his advanced analytics point to the fact that he’s pitched even better than that. Velasquez has had a rough few years, and this year is no different. He was demoted to the bullpen and will be making his first start since that demotion. He has a 5.30 ERA and xERA of 6.25. We’re going to take the Rays on the RL.
Giants (-150) at Marlins – We’re looking at another pitching mismatch here in the Giants’ Alex Cobb vs. Miami’s Ellieser Hernandez. Cobb has an ERA of 5.73 but an xERA of just 2.04 and his analytics point to a positive regression coming. Hernandez, meanwhile, has a similar ERA of 5.77 but hasn’t pitched nearly as well as Cobb. After getting shut out last night, we’re going to take the Giants on the ML.
Yankees (-1.5) vs. Tigers – There’s a theme here today as we look at another total pitching mismatch with the Yanks’ Gerrit Cole faces Detroit’s Elvin Rodriguez. Cole has been steady all season with a 3.12 ERA and 72 strikeouts vs. just 15 walks. He also pitched very well in his last time out, giving up just one run in six innings against the Rays. Rodriguez, on the other hand, has an ERA over 6 and has walked five guys in just 11 innings of work. We’re taking the Yankees on the RL.
Saturday, June 4
Edmonton (+.5 first period) vs. Colorado – The Avs won the first two games in Denver and now travel to Edmonton for game 3. The Oilers absolutely need to win this game to stay in the series. You can expect a huge first-period push Edmonton. The price isn’t great, but take the Oilers in the first period.
Sunday, June 5
Warriors (first quarter -1.5) vs. Celtics – The Celtics shot 51% from three-point range in game one and we don’t expect that to happen again (remember regression). Down 1-0, Golden State cannot afford to lose this game. We expect the Warriors to come out motivated and dominate the first quarter. Take Golden State (-1.5) to win the first quarter.
Thursday, June 2 Update and Best Bets
I certainly didn’t see the Pirates’ sweep of the Dodgers coming – and neither did many other people.
Pittsburgh beat the Dodgers 8-4 last night as a +225 underdog to complete a three-game sweep in Dodger Stadium. In addition, the Pirates have beaten the Dodgers five of six times this season.
That’s baseball and that’s why they call it gambling. The good news is that there are plenty more baseball games today as well as the first game of the NBA Finals. Also, game two of the Western Conference finals in the Stanley Cup playoffs is tonight, so we’ll get back to work.
Yesterday’s recap
In addition to the upset by the Pirates, four other underdogs won on the MLB slate as favorites went 9-5-1 on the day. Unders went 8-7 and home teams went 10-5.
In the NHL, the New York Rangers as a small home underdog dominated the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2 to take a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference finals.
Best Bets recap
Well, we already mentioned the Dodgers debacle with the Pirates. The good news is that we did pick up a win with the Braves (ML) win over the Diamondbacks. We also had the Yankees (RL) over the Angels, but that game was rained out. The 1-1 record brings our record to 9-5 since the site was launched.
Today’s Best Bets
Yesterday’s rain out in Yankee Stadium provides us with an opportunity today – but only if the announced pitching matchups hold. It looks like the Angels are shifting Shohei Ohtani to the afternoon game to face Nestor Cortez. That’s a great pitching matchup, but we’ll pass on that game and look at the nightcap.
Yankees (-1.5 +125) vs. Angels – As we noted yesterday, the Yankees hit left-handers really well and Reid Detmers hasn’t changed which arm he throws with since yesterday. The only difference is that instead of facing Cortez, he’ll be going against Taillon. Taillon is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.49 with 39 strikeouts vs. only five walks. While the Yankees’ pitching advantage may not be as lopsided as yesterday’s proposed matchup, we feel that it’s still good enough to pull the trigger on this play. As we noted yesterday, New York is 11-5 against left-handers. We’re taking the Yankees on the RL at plus money.
Nationals at Reds (Over 9.5) – Here are two pitchers with big question marks on bad pitching teams playing in the one ballpark that has been consistent with its winning Overs this year.
Joan Adnon is Washington’s scheduled starter. He comes into today’s game with a 1-5 record, 6.09 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Those are just the start of his bad numbers.
Meanwhile, the Reds will trot out Graham Ashcraft, who has had two quality starts and sports a 1.69 ERA. However, he’s only pitched 10 innings and his strikeouts and walks per nine innings are both 3.38. He also doesn’t produce many swing and misses. The point is that, even though he’s off to a strong start, there are signs that it won’t last.
We feel like this a spot where a lot of runs will be scored. Take the Over full game total of 9.5.
Marlins (First Five innings ML -130) vs. Giants – Miami, mercifully, leaves Colorado after giving up 21 runs in its three games there. The Marlins pitching has been much better at home and today’s starter Sandy Alcantara has been strong all year with a 5-2 record, a 2.00 ERA a WHIP of 0.99 and 63 strikeouts vs. 21 walks in 67.2 innings.
The Giants counter with Alex Wood who comes in with a 3-4 record, 4.81 ERA and a WHIP of 1.44.
While both bullpens got a lot of use in their previous series, we’re going to stick to the first five innings of this one and take Miami as we expect Alcantara to continue his dominance.
Cubs (First Five ML -108) vs. Cardinals – Once again, this is a starting pitcher matchup that we’re going to focus on. The Cubs will start Keegan Thompson, who is 5-0 with a 1.58 ERA. Yes, there are signs of negative regression coming as his xERA is only 3.13.
The Cardinals counter with left-hander Michael Liberatore, who has only pitched nine innings so far this season. He has a 3.72 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. His xERA is 4.78 so his negative regression potential is worse than Thompson’s.
The Cubs haven’t been great this year, entering today with a 21-29 record. They do fare better against left-handers, going 7-8 so far.
We’re going to take the Cubs in the first five.
That’s four picks that we feel good about. Good luck with your plays today!
Wednesday, June 1 Update and Best Bets
It wasn’t the best start to the week as we dropped our Best Bet, but we have 16 more baseball games today as well as the start of the Eastern Conference finals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Yesterday’s recap
Break up the Pirates! The Buccos beat the Dodgers for the second straight night and were one of six underdogs to win as favorites went 9-6. Overs continued to prosper as the weather has warmed up, going 9-6 on the day. Favorites still are winning at a 60.4% clip so far this season while Unders are leading 368-330-38 (52.7%).
The Avalanche and Oilers began their Western Conference finals series with a goal-fest as Colorado topped Edmonton 8-6, doubling the total number of seven. This looks like a series that will see a lot of goals. Be wary of the books edging that total number up as the series goes on.
Best Bet recap
As we noted, it wasn’t a great day for the Best Bet as the White Sox and Blue Jays had big offensive barrages in the sixth inning to blow away the First-Five Under total of 4. It was looking good as the Jays led just 2-1 through four innings and stalwart pitchers Kevin Gausman and Lucas Giolito appeared to be cruising.
It wasn’t to be, however, as the offenses caught up to both in the fifth as the White Sox scored twice and Toronto plated four runs.
That brings our record to a still respectable 8-4, but we need to get back on the winning track.
Today’s Best Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 -120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As we mentioned earlier, the Pirates have won the first two games of this series against the mighty Dodgers. In fact, the Pirates have won four of five games against the Dodgers this season. From a regression standpoint alone, we don’t think this will continue.
In addition, the Pirates will be throwing left-hander Jose Quintana, who threw six shutout innings against L.A. earlier this season. First, regression again. We can’t see that happening a second time. Second, the Dodgers are 13-4 against left-handers this season.
Mitch White and the bullpen will be pitching for the Dodgers tonight and that’s typically good enough if the Dodgers’ offense gets back to normal.
That’ what we we’re looking for. Take the Dodgers on the RL and get the better price.
Atlanta Braves (ML -155) at Arizona Diamondbacks – Who would’ve thought that the Diamondbacks (25-26) would have a better record than the Braves (23-27) at this point in the season. Arizona won 8-7 in extra innings last night and have won the first two games of this series.
Today’s pitching matchup features Kyle Wright for the Braves vs. Madison Bumgarner for the D-backs. Wright has been sensational so far this season with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and 61 strikeouts vs. only 18 walks 53.2 innings of work. His advanced analytics are solid and don’t really show any signs of regression.
Bumgarner has been decent so far this year, sporting a 3.35 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. However, he does show a little sign of negative regression as his xERA is 4.50 and FIP is 5.27. Combine that potential negative regression with the fact that the Braves are 10-6 against left-handers and you see where we think there is an advantage here for Atlanta.
We’re taking Atlanta on the ML.
New York Yankees (-1.5 +110) vs. Los Angeles Angels – We’re once again going to look at a better team with a pitching advantage and a strong record against left-handed pitching.
Nestor Cortez has been excellent so far this season for the Yankees. He has a 1.70 ERA, a WHIP of 0.85 and has struck out 61 while only walking 12 in 53 innings.
The Angels will counter with Reid Detmers, who has a no-hitter to his credit this season. However, he also has a 4.95 ERA with a walk to strikeout ratio of 27-11 through 40 innings.
In addition, the Yanks are 11-5 against left-handers this year. We’re taking the Yankees on the RL
Good luck with your own plays today!
Tuesday, May 31 Update and Best Bets
I hope everyone’s long Memorial Day weekend was better than our end of the week selections.
Before jumping into a new week, we have to reconcile the end of our week as we lost both of our Thursday picks and our one play on Friday as somehow the lowly Reds knocked off the Giants.
We still had a profitable week, going 8-3. From now on, we’ll just use our picks that we post here since the site’s launch. So, although the end of the week wasn’t great, we did have a very strong week overall.
Now, it’s time to turn our attention to this week.
We still will have plenty of baseball to go along with the NBA Finals beginning on Thursday and conference finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs getting underway tonight.
Our main focus will be on baseball, but if we see a play in the other sports that makes a lot of sense, we will examine that as well.
There are 16 baseball games to look at today with every team in action and the Tigers and Twins playing a doubleheader.
As we close out May and head into June we can see definite uptick in offensive numbers across the board. The warming weather probably plays a big part in that. So, it’s time to adjust some of our thought processes as this hot weather will be around for the next three or four months.
What are we looking at today?
White Sox at Blue Jays (first five O/U 4 -110) – Two premier pitchers in Lucas Giolito, for the White Sox, faces Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. Both have been outstanding through the first two months of the season.
Giolito has a 3-1 record with a 2.63 ERA and an xFIP of 2.90 (the closer these numbers are, the closer the pitcher is to getting results equal to the quality of his pitching). This means he hasn’t been luck in posting such a good ERA.
Gausman has been even better with a 4-2 record, a 2.25 ERA and a 2.40 xFIP. He’s giving up a paltry .16 home runs per nine innings. In addition he’s strike out 10.45 per nine innings and walking less than one. As I noted, he’s been outstanding.
With these two pitchers, we really don’t expect a lot of runs. As of Tuesday morning 75% percent of the bets have been on the Over 7.5 game total. However, 60% of the handle has been on the under.
We’re going to take the bullpens out of the mix and look for both pitchers to be strong. We’re taking Under 4 in the first five innings.
Good luck with your plays today!
Friday, May 27 Update and Best Bets
We talk about regression a lot when making betting decisions and, unfortunately, regression happens to bettors as well.
After a mini-run of picking eight straight winners, we dropped both of our picks last night as the Blue Jays topped Shohei Ohtani and the Angels and Guardians and Tigers were tied after five innings. More on those games later.
Overall Thursday recap
Favorites went 6-5 in baseball last night and are winning 61.1% of the time so far this season. Overs were 6-4-1 on the night, but Unders still lead on the season, winning 53.4% of the time. Unders were winning at a close to 60% clip through the first month of the season, but warmer weather and revised totals have brought that percentage down significantly.
The Warriors beat the Mavericks 120-110 to cover and advance to the Finals against the winner of the Boston-Miami series. Favorites are 7-3 during this round of the NBA playoffs while Unders are 6-4.
Favorites and Over/Unders each went 1-1 last night in the NHL as Carolina beat the Rangers 3-1 to take a 3-2 series lead and Edmonton, as a road underdog, beat Calgary 5-4 to win their series 4-1.
Reviewing our picks
We may have gotten a little too cute by parlaying the first five innings and full game ML in the Tigers-Guardians game.
We had the Tigers and they did end up winning the game 4-3, but the game was tied 3-3 after five innings. Detroit had bases loaded and one out in the fourth but were unable to score. In addition, Tigers’ pitcher Tarik Skubal gave up three runs in the third inning, which we didn’t see coming. He didn’t give up any other runs in his seven innings of work, but the damage was done.
We also had the Angels in the first five and full game and this was not ever close. The Blue Jays scored four runs in the first three innings and led 4-2 after five on their way to a 6-3 victory. Ohtani had been much better in his previous starts, but, hey, regression.
The two losses bring our record to 8-2 on the week and 34-23-1 (59%) in our last 58 baseball games.
Today’s Best Bets
San Francisco (-1.5 -130) at Cincinnati – The Reds put up 20 runs yesterday in stomping the Cubs 20-5. Chances are, they won’t be doing that again today against the Giants and Carlos Rodon. Rodon is averaging 12.49 strikeouts per nine innings against only 3.43 walks. He’s giving up just .40 home runs per nine innings and has a 3.43 ERA, which probably should be better according to his advanced stats.
Last time out against the Padres, who have hammered left-handers this season, he gave up two runs on five hits in six innings. Cincinnati is just 3-10 against left-handers and Rodon is not your average left-hander.
We’re going to play this on the RL to get a better price as we look forward to getting back on the winning side of things.
Good luck with your plays today!
Thursday, May 26 Update & Picks
We only made one pick yesterday, but it was a profitable one as the Oakland’s Paul Blackburn held the Mariners in check through the first five innings.
That brings our record for this week to 8-0 with one push. Our record over our last 55 baseball games is 34-21 (61%). We know we can’t stay that hot, but we might as well make some money while we are.
Recap of yesterday
MLB favorites went 8-5 yesterday to improve to 391-248 on the season. Unders were 8-4-1 yesterday.
For those of you playing the NBA, the Celtics rolled to a win on the road last night and now lead their Eastern Conference final series with Miami 3-2. Favorites improved to 6-3 during this round.
In last night’s NHL playoffs, the Blues rallied for a 5-4 victory over the Avalanche to stay alive in their series. Colorado still leads the series 3-2. Favorites are now 11-5 during this round.
Review of our bet
Oakland (first five +140) at Seattle – Everything pointed to this being a decent pitchers duel between Paul Blackburn and Seattle’s Robbie Ray and that’s exactly what we got. Blackburn did not give up a run through 5.1 innings of work while Ray pitched six innings and only gave up three runs.
I don’t have great confidence in the Athletics’ offense or bullpen, but Blackburn has been strong all year and no real signs of negative regression. A first five bet seemed appropriate here as it’s not often you get plus money on a pitcher with such good statistics at this point in the season. The A’s got a home run from Seth Brown in the fourth inning to give the A’s a 1-0 lead and that’s how it stayed through five innings. We’ll take the plus money win.
Today’s bets
It’s baseball so we will again be focusing on pitching matchups that we think we can make some money on. We’ve selected two and are going to turn them into plus money bets by parlaying the first five innings ML with the full game ML.
Detroit (first 5 ML/ML +125) vs. Cleveland – This game and this pick is all about Tigers’ pitcher Tarik Skubal. Skubal is off to a great start this season. He sports a 3-2 record with a 2.22 ERA and an xERA of only 2.46. That means that he’s pitched as well as his results and we don’t see any signs of upcoming negative regression.
The Guardians will counter with Konnor Pilkington, a left-hander who has only thrown eight innings so far this season. Pilkington has pithed decently in his major league outings with 11 strikeouts and four walks. But he has spent most of his time in AAA Columbus.
While Skubal did have to leave his last start after taking a ground ball off his shin, we feel if he pitches anywhere near what he has done all season, the Tigers will have the advantage.
Angels (first 5 ML/ML +105) vs. Blue Jays – Like our first game was all about pitching, so is this one. Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for Los Angeles to face Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays.
Ohtani, like Skubal, has been fantastic so far this season. He 3-2 record with a 2.82 ERA and an xERA of 2.71. None of his analytics show any sign of negative regression. In fact, there is a case to be made that there is positive regression coming.
Ryu, a lefty, has pitched just 18 innings and has an ERA of 6.00. He has pitched better than the results as his xERA is 4.95, but it doesn’t match Ohtani. In addition, the Angels bullpen has been better than Tornoto’s so far this season Throw in the fact that the Angels have hit left-handers well so far this season, posting an 8-4 record against southpaws, and you have the makings of Los Angeles victory.
We think they’ll be ahead after five innings and win the game.
Good luck with your plays!
Wednesday, May 25 update and picks
It’s always nice to have a profitable day.
The only mistake we made yesterday was taking the Brewers in five innings instead of the full game. The Brewers and Padres were tied 1-1 after five for a push, but, fortunately, we hit on our other three plays as the Diamondbacks (-1.5) rallied to top the Royals 8-6, the Blue Jays (first five ML) dominated the Cardinals 8-1 and the Astros (-1.5) beat the Guardians 7-3.
The 3-0-1 record pushed our record for the week to 6-0-1 and we’re 32-21-1 in our last 54 games.
Review of our picks
Brewers (first five ML) at Padres – San Diego got a home run off Corbin Burnes in the first inning and then nothing else the rest of the game. That one run, though, was enough to get a push in the first five innings as it took the Brewers getting a run in the top of the fifth to tie it. Burnes did exactly what I thought he’d do, but Blake Snell pitched much better for the Padres. It wasn’t a win, but I don’t feel badly about the play.
Blue Jays (first five ML) at Cardinals – Kevin Gausman continued his strong season by pitching six scoreless innings. Toronto led 4-0 after five and cruised to an 8-1 win. Again, we felt Gausman would dominate the St. Louis lineup and he did.
Astros (-1.5) vs. Guardians – Framber Valdez pitched seven strong innings, giving up three runs while Houston battered Cleveland’s Zach Plesac for nine hits and seven runs. The Guardians beat the Astros on Monday, so having the better team with the better pitcher on the following day is never a bad spot to be in.
Diamondbacks (-1.5) vs. Royals – This really didn’t play at the way I thought, but I’ll take the win. Zach Gallen has been very good for Arizona all year. However, last night he wasn’t at his best giving up six runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings. The D-backs trailed 6-3 before rallying for five runs in the bottom of the sixth to take the lead. The bullpen held on from there and we secured another win.
Overall Tuesday baseball recap
Favorites went 11-4 Tuesday night and now lead 383-243 (61%) on the season. Home teams are 327-313 for just a 51% winning percentage.
Wednesday’s top pick
There are 13 more baseball games to choose from today and we’re only seeing one that we’re going to focus on.
Oakland (first five +140) at Seattle – This is a quality pitching matchup between the Mariners’ Robbie Ray and the Athletics’ Paul Blackburn. Ray is the former Cy Young winner and is having a decent year. He has a 4.77 ERA but his xERA is a little better at 4.02. Ray, traditionally, is better at home and the A’s are near the bottom of the league in most offensive stats.
So, why go with Oakland here?
Blackburn has been tremendous so far this season with an ERA of 1.91. Yes, he shows some sign of regression as his xERA is 3.32 (but still better than Ray’s) but he doesn’t give up many home runs (just .21 per nine innings) and he walks less than two batters per nine innings.
The Mariners aren’t exactly setting the game on fire either as they come in with a 18-26 record.
It’s unusual to get a pitcher with such dominant statistics at plus money so I think there is a lot of value in taking A’s and Blackburn here and hope that is regression doesn’t come today. I’ll stay out of the bullpen and take the A’s in the first five innings.
Good luck with your plays today!
Tuesday, May 24 update and picks
After a rough Sunday, we bounced back with a perfect 4-0 Monday, including 3-0 in our baseball plays.
Those three winning picks brings our baseball record to 29-21 (58%) in our last 50 games.
The Phillies (1st 5 ML) led 7-1 after five innings, the Dodgers (RL) rolled to a 10-1 win and the Cubs (ML) beat the Reds 7-4.
Our other play Monday was the Celtics (-3) winning the first quarter. Boston dominated Miami all night and led comfortably 29-11 after one quarter.
It’s not often that we get any comfortable wins, but last night we had four of them. While that almost never happens, we’ll take it, knowing that it probably won’t happen again soon.
Overall, MLB favorites went 9-3 yesterday with upsets by the Orioles (+253), Guardians (+155) and Mets (+125). Overs went 9-3 on the night as the unders winning percentage has dropped to 54% from a high over 60% just one month ago.
What we are looking at today
There’s a full slate of 15 baseball games to examine today and we’re focusing on four of them.
Blue Jays (first five -150) at Cardinals
The Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman has had an outstanding start to the season, with a 2.52 ERA through 50 innings so far. Most importantly, Gausman has been consistent. His xERA is 2.70 and his xFIP is 2.30. All numbers that show consistent excellence and no signs of regression.
Jordan Hicks will be starting for the Cardinals. Hicks has a high walk percentage of over 5 per nine innings. His ERA, xERA FIP and xFIP are all above 4.00 so there is no signs of positive regression there
If you combine Gausman’s stand out numbers, Hicks’ mediocre numbers and the Cardinals vulnerability to dominant right-handed pitching, you get a play on the Jays. Now, the Blue Jays bullpen was extended last night so we’re going to just play the first five innings.
Royals at Diamondbacks (-1.5 +100)
Here’s another instance of a pitcher being dominant through the first two months of the season as Arizona’s Zac Gallen takes the mound against the Royals. Gallen has a miniscule ERA of 1.14 through 39 innings. He does show a little bit of negative regression signs with a xFIP of 3.52, but he still should be very good against a less than average Royals’ offense.
In addition, the Royals will trot out Jon Heasley, who has only pitched eight innings so far this season without a lot of success. Heasley has struck out two and walked seven while compiling an ERA of 4.32. Even worse, his xERA is 6.02.
The Diamondbacks are 11-11 at home while Royals are just 6-12 on the road. We’re going to play the RL here and look for an easy Arizona win.
Guardians at Astros (-1.5 +100)
We’ve seen this moneyline move from Astros -190 to -210 as money has poured in on the Astros side. It’s not hard to figure out why as Houston will start Framber Valdez, who is sporting a 2.68 ERA through 47 innings so far this season.
The Guardians will counter with Zach Plesac, who’s just 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA. Even worse, his xERA is 5.69. Plesac is giving up 1.40 home runs per nine innings and striking out just over 5 per nine innings. Compare that with Valdez, who is giving up 0.19 home runs per nine innings and striking out nearly 7.5 per nine innings.
Throw in the fact that the Astros are 21-9 in their last 30 games while the Guardians are just 14-16 and you have the potential for a mismatch tonight.
Brewers (first five -135) at Padres
There’s no question that the Padres are on fire right now. They beat the Brewers in extra innings last night and have won eight of their last 10 games.
However, they’ll be facing Corbin Burnes tonight and he has been outstanding through the first two months of the season. Burnes has a paltry ERA of 2.26 and his extended stats are nearly as good with an xERA of 3.10 and an xFIP of 2.63.
San Diego will start Blake Snell, who will be making just his second appearance of the season. Snell is a quality pitcher but he has to work himself back into form. He pitched just 3.2 innings in his first start against the Phillies, giving up three runs on three hits and three walks.
Both teams gave their bullpens some work in last night’s 10-inning affair. We’ll go with Burnes and the Brewers in the first five innings.