Frustrating, frustrating, frustrating.

There’s really nothing else that describes yesterday’s Best Bet, as I took one of the better teams in baseball at home with very good pitcher against one of the worst teams in baseball on the road with 10 guys missing, including multiple starters.

Of course, somehow or another, the Royals beat the Blue Jays 3-1. Are you kidding me?

As I have said, baseball is a grind and there will be ups and downs – but that was a kick in the teeth loss.

Oh well, we’re in it for the long haul and we’re back at it today.

This will be the final post until after next week’s All-Star break. Hopefully, we can end this ceremonial first half on a winning note and be ready for the second half next weekend.

Today’s Best Bets

Blue Jays (-1.5, -155) vs. Royals – Yes, I know, this failed yesterday. But, I’m a glutton for punishment and am going right back to the Blue Jays over the short-handed Royals.

As a reminder, Toronto has a record of 47-43 and is fighting for a playoff spot. Kansas City is 36-53 and is nowhere near the playoffs.

In addition, the Blue Jays will have Alek Manoah pitching tonight and he’s been stellar this year with a 9-4 record and an ERA of 2.34.

Yes, the Royals are pitching Zack Grienke, but he’s just 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA.

I don’t see lightning striking twice in two days. I’m taking the Blue Jays -1.5.

DFS lineup for The Open Championship

The 150^th Open Championship tees off tomorrow in the home of golf, St. Andrews, Scotland.

It’s been a festive week already with commemorative events, dinners and recognitions. The golf, though, begins in earnest tomorrow.

One thing we enjoy as much as anything on the betting side, is the DFS plays for big golf tournaments – and as I noted, it doesn’t get any bigger than the 150^th Open at St. Andrews.

Majors have such deep fields compared to a regular week on the PGA Tour. It’s amazing the prices you can get on some of these really good players.

With that in mind, here is our six-man lineup.

Remember there is a budget limit of $50,000.

Jordan Spieth ($10,000) – Spieth played well last week in the Scottish Open and I look for him to continue this week. Tee to green, Spieth is as good or better than he ever was. He has struggled on the greens this season and, really, that’s the only thing holding him back. The greens at a links course, like St. Andrews, are naturally slower because of the potential for such great winds.

Somehow or another, Spieth nearly always finds a way to contend at major championships and I expect him to this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,700) – The current U.S. Open champ has continued his great play for the last month. He also played well last week at the Scottish Open. In addition, he has eight top 10 finishes and a 14^th place at The Masters.

We look for Fitzpatrick to continue on his roll and finish somewhere near the top this weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Fleetwood finished in the top 15 in both The Masters and PGA Championship. He also finished T-4 last week at the Scottish Open. He’s been playing well with only a balky putter holding him back. He continually gets on the leaderboard at majors and I think that will be the case this week as well.

Christian Bezuidenhout  ($7,300) – Bezuidenhout is another player that’s been incredibly hot as of late. He’s finished in the top 16 in four of his last six tournaments and has made 15 of 19 cuts on the season. He’s another one that played well last week in Scotland. He had a rough opening round but bounced back to make the cut and finish T-16. I look for him to stay hot and at least get to the weekend.

Jordan L. Smith ($7,200) – Smith isn’t as well known as many other golfers in this tournament, but that could prove to a plus as his ownership will be down. He’s made 13 of 14 cuts and five top 10s this season. He also made the cut and finished T-24 in the very difficult Scottish Open field. The Englishman is ranked 115^th in the world, but is playing much better than that.

Ryan Fox ($7,100) – Fox, from New Zealand, has made 13 of 15 cuts and has seven top 10s this season. He’s played very well and finished second in the Irish Open two weeks ago. Fox also finished T-47 last week in Scotland and shot 69 in the final round. He is ranked 48 in the world. I expect another strong week and believe he will be playing Friday and Saturday.

Have fun watching the tournament and good luck with your own picks!

DFS lineup for the U.S. Open

Phil Mickelson had his press conference beating on Monday to get it out of the way for the week. Hopefully, now we can talk a little bit less about LIV Golf, PGA Golf and start talking more about the U.S. Open.

We know a lot of people are interested in picking their DFS lineups this week and we’re going to give you ours.

Our first pick is Rory McIlroy ($10,500). McIlroy won last week at the Canadian Open and has finished second in the Masters and seventh at the PGA already this year. He’s playing very well, and the price is pretty good when you consider that there are three golfers priced ahead of him (John Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas).

With our second pick, we’re taking Xander Schauffle ($9,600). Schauffle hasn’t had a banner year, but he also has finished in the top seven in each of the last five U.S. Opens. That’s the kind of performance we’re looking for in a top pick.

Third, we’re going with Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700). Fleetwood has contended at U.S. Opens before and has been playing well this season. He has four top 10s and has made 14 of 15 cuts. Making cuts is important for every DFS lineup makeup. You want to get all six of your players to the weekend. That’s the only way to have a chance at some money. We think Fleetwood does this for us and his upside is big.

Sungjae Im is our fourth pick. He had a battle with Covid, but he’s also had a terrific season. He has six top 10s and has made 15 of 17 cuts. Again, we’re looking for consistently good results and somebody with big upside potential. Im fits the bill.

Fifth is Keegan Bradley ($7.500). Like Fleetwood, Bradley, who has a major championship to his credit, has been consistent this season with four top 10s and 13 of 16 cuts. In addition, he’s playing at home.

Our final selection is Justin Rose ($7,100). Rose has won a U.S. Open before and is coming off a top four finish at last week’s Canadian Open. He’s had three top 10s this season and has made nine of 13 cuts. We feel is strong history in majors will be a plus at this price.

So, there you have it – Rory, Schauffele, Fleetwood, Im, Bradley and Rose.

Good luck with your lineups this weekend!

Our top DFS plays for the Canadian Open

We did not finish in the money at last week’s Memorial so we’ll move on to the RBC Canadian Open.

With all the controversy about the LIV tournament in London and who’s playing, most of the best players in the world are still playing the PGA and this week’s stop is the Canadian Open.

I’m going to lead off with Rory McIlroy (priced at $10,500). He is hitting the ball as well as anyone but needs to putt better. With the U.S. Open on the horizon, look for McIlroy to contend here.

Corey Connors has played well all season and now has the opportunity to play in his own national tournament. He’s made 13 of 17 cuts and played well last week.

Brendon Todd twice has finished in the top 10 in his last five starts. This is a good opportunity for him to show how his ball striking can put him in contention.

Dylan Fritelli has made nine straight cuts and that’s the kind of consistency we’re looking for. You need to get all six of your selections to the weekend and Fritelli is playing well enough to help.

Peter Malnati is quietly having a good season. He’s made 15 of 24 cuts and has had two top 10 finishes. This course is not terribly long (just over 7,000 yards) and that’s his type of course.

We’ll round out our six with Adam Schenk. I was on Schenk earlier in the season and have gotten away from him lately. However, he had a good week at the Memorial, finishing 26^th and we look for him to continue that good play into this week.

So, it’s McIlroy, Connors, Todd, Fritelli, Malnati and Schenk.

Good luck with your team this week!

DFS plays for the Memorial

Golf is a sport that we love and enjoy betting on. We also like playing DFS for some of the big tournaments throughout the year. This week it’s the Memorial.

For those, we’ll give you our six player picks for the week, staying within the budget. It’s a fun way to stay involved with the tournament throughout the weekend.

The Memorial, hosted by Jack Nicklaus, at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio is a very good tournament that’s situated nicely between the PGA and the upcoming U.S. Open.

Jack generally has Muirfield Village set up similarly to U.S. Open conditions, so it becomes a nice test. The Memorial also usually attracts a strong field, and this year is no exception.

If you remember, Jon Rahm had a six-stroke lead after three rounds last year and then tested positive for Covid. That meant he couldn’t finish the tournament, opening the door for Patrick Cantlay to jump through and grab the victory.

For this year, Rahm heads the field with a price of $11,100 while Cantlay is at $10,700. Neither has been in form recently so I’m going to stay away from both.

My first pick will be Rory McIlroy at $10,900. McIlroy has been solid for most of the season and contended at both the Masters and PGA. As he prepares for the U.S. Open, this is a good spot for him.

My second pick is Viktor Hovland at $9,300. Hovland has made 15 of 16 cuts this season and has seven top 10s.

Third is Shane Lowery, who has been playing extremely well so far this season, making 10 of 12 cuts and having three top 10s. In addition, Lowery enters this week first in strokes gained total and fourth in strokes gained on approach in his last 24 rounds. Also, he finished T6 at last year’s Memorial.

Fourth is Chris Kirk at $7.,700. We feel this is good value after finishing fifth at the PGA and 15^th at last week’s Charles Schwab Invitational.

Fifth is Brendan Steele at $6,600, who has made five straight cuts and has two top 15s in big tournaments.

My final pick is Lucas Glover at $6,500. Glover has made the cut the last five times he’s played the Memorial and for the lower value players that’s what I’m looking for.

So, it’s McIlroy, Hovland, Lowery, Kirk, Steele and Glover. Pricing is right on the nose at $50,000.

Good luck with your picks and enjoy the tournament!

Analytics or common sense?

When it comes to sports betting there are some people that live and die by the numbers and analytics and there are some people that just want to have fun and use their “gut.”

I believe numbers and analytics are important and don’t feel completely comfortable placing a wager without some hard data behind that decision. As we know, that doesn’t always work out. I also know a lot of people that just have a feeling about games and they use that to make wagers.

While that doesn’t sound very scientific, they are probably using some kind of analytics and they don’t even realize it.

For example, if a college basketball team with a 4-13 record upset the number 1 ranked team in the country by shooting 80% from three-point range, do we really think they could do it again in a rematch.

Whether they know anything about analytics or not, most people are going to take the No.1 ranked team in the rematch. Why? Because there is no way that the underdog is going to shoot like that again.

People that know and understand analytics realize that’s a form of regression to the mean. Regression is one thing that I consistently look at. Is positive regression coming? Is negative regression coming?

We all know that if a player hits 10 home runs in a week that they will not be able to keep that up week after week.

Baseball is full of statistics and numbers and that leads to opportunities to identify regression – especially since it’s a long 162-game regular season. Numbers and player performance will nearly always get back to their averages.

Many of our picks during the season will reflect regression in some form. It’s something you should keep in mind when making your own plays.